PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCEAs a contribution toward preparing the United States for a future in which Artificial Intelligence (AI) plays a growing role, we survey the current state of AI, its existing and potential applications, and the questions that are raised for society and public policy by progress in AI. We also make recommendations for specific further actions by Federal agencies and other actors. A companion document called the National Artificial Intelligence Research and Development Strategic Plan lays out a strategic plan for Federally-funded research and development in AI.Developing and studying machine intelligence can help us better understand and appreciate our human intelligence. Used thoughtfully, AI can augment our intelligence, helping us chart a better and wiser path forward. [Editor's note: This StratML rendition documents the recommendations as goals.]Executive Office of the PresidentEOP_f30b891c-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbcNational Science and Technology CouncilCommittee on Technology -- The National Science and Technology Council (NSTC) is the principal means by which the Executive Branch coordinates science and technology policy across the diverse entities that make up the Federal research and development (R&D) enterprise. One of the NSTC’s primary objectives is establishing clear national goals for Federal science and technology investments. The NSTC prepares R&D packages aimed at accomplishing multiple national goals. The NSTC’s work is organized under five committees: Environment, Natural Resources, and Sustainability; Homeland and National Security; Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Education; Science; and Technology. Each of these committees oversees subcommittees and working groups that are focused on different aspects of science and technology. More information is available at www.whitehouse.gov/ostp/nstc.Office of Science and Technology PolicyThe Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) was established by the National Science and Technology Policy, Organization, and Priorities Act of 1976. OSTP’s responsibilities include advising the President in policy formulation and budget development on questions in which science and technology are important elements; articulating the President’s science and technology policy and programs; and fostering strong partnerships among Federal, state, and local governments, and the scientific communities in industry and academia. The Director of OSTP also serves as Assistant to the President for Science and Technology and manages the NSTC. More information is available at www.whitehouse.gov/ostp.John P. HoldrenAssistant to the President for Science and Technology & Director, Office of Science and Technology PolicyMegan SmithU.S. Chief Technology OfficerAfua BruceExecutive Director, Office of Science and Technology PolicySubcommittee on Machine Learning and Artificial IntelligenceEd FeltenCo-Chair -- Deputy U.S. Chief Technology Officer, Office of Science and Technology PolicyMichael GarrisCo-Chair -- Senior Scientist, National Institute of Standards and Technology, U.S. Department of CommerceTerah LyonsExecutive Secretary -- Policy Advisor to the U.S. Chief Technology Officer, Office of Science and Technology Policy Federal Departments & AgenciesThe following Federal departments and agencies are represented on the Subcommittee on Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence and through it, work together to monitor the state of the art in machine learning (ML) and AI (within the Federal Government, in the private sector, and internationally), to watch for the arrival of important technology milestones in the development of AI, to coordinate the use of and foster the sharing of knowledge and best practices about ML and AI by the Federal Government, and to consult in the development of Federal research and development priorities in AI:Department of CommerceCo-ChairDepartment of DefenseDepartment of EducationDepartment of EnergyDepartment of Health and Human ServicesDepartment of Homeland SecurityDepartment of JusticeDepartment of LaborDepartment of StateDepartment of TransportationDepartment of TreasuryDepartment of Veterans AffairsUnited States Agency for International DevelopmentCentral Intelligence AgencyGeneral Services AdministrationNational Science FoundationNational Security AgencyNational Aeronautics and Space AdministrationOffice of the Director of National IntelligenceSocial Security AdministrationEOP OfficesThe following offices of the Executive Office of the President are also represented on the Subcommittee:Council of Economic AdvisersDomestic Policy CouncilOffice of Management and BudgetOffice of Science and Technology PolicyCo-ChairOffice of the Vice PresidentNational Economic CouncilNational Security Council AI StakeholdersPreparing for the Future -- AI holds the potential to be a major driver of economic growth and social progress, if industry, civil society, government, and the public work together to support development of the technology with thoughtful attention to its potential and to managing its risks. IndustryCivil SocietyGovernmentThe PublicU.S. GovernmentThe U.S. Government has several roles to play. It can convene conversations about important issues and help to set the agenda for public debate. It can monitor the safety and fairness of applications as they develop, and adapt regulatory frameworks to encourage innovation while protecting the public. It can provide public policy tools to ensure that disruption in the means and methods of work enabled by AI increases productivity while avoiding negative economic consequences for certain sectors of the workforce. It can support basic research and the application of AI to public good. It can support development of a skilled, diverse workforce. And government can use AI itself to serve the public faster, more effectively, and at lower cost. Many areas of public policy, from education and the economic safety net, to defense, environmental preservation, and criminal justice, will see new opportunities and new challenges driven by the continued progress of AI. The U.S. Government must continue to build its capacity to understand and adapt to these changes.AI PractitionersAs the technology of AI continues to develop, practitioners must ensure that AI-enabled systems are governable; that they are open, transparent, and understandable; that they can work effectively with people; and that their operation will remain consistent with human values and aspirations.AI ResearchersResearchers and practitioners have increased their attention to these challenges, and should continue to focus on them. AI augments our intelligence to chart a better and wiser path forward_f30b8af2-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbcTo survey the state of AI and make recommendations for action_f30b8eda-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbcPublic GoodApplications of AI for Public Good -- One area of great optimism about AI and machine learning is their potential to improve people’s lives by helping to solve some of the world’s greatest challenges and inefficiencies. Many have compared the promise of AI to the transformative impacts of advancements in mobile computing. Public- and privatesector investments in basic and applied R&D on AI have already begun reaping major benefits to the public in fields as diverse as health care, transportation, the environment, criminal justice, and economic inclusion. The effectiveness of government itself is being increased as agencies build their capacity to use AI to carry out their missions more quickly, responsively, and efficiently.RegulationAI and Regulation -- AI has applications in many products, such as cars and aircraft, which are subject to regulation designed to protect the public from harm and ensure fairness in economic competition. How will the incorporation of AI into these products affect the relevant regulatory approaches? In general, the approach to regulation of AI-enabled products to protect public safety should be informed by assessment of the aspects of risk that the addition of AI may reduce alongside the aspects of risk that it may increase. If a risk falls within the bounds of an existing regulatory regime, moreover, the policy discussion should start by considering whether the existing regulations already adequately address the risk, or whether they need to be adapted to the addition of AI. Also, where regulatory responses to the addition of AI threaten to increase the cost of compliance, or slow the development or adoption of beneficial innovations, policymakers should consider how those responses could be adjusted to lower costs and barriers to innovation without adversely impacting safety or market fairness. Currently relevant examples of the regulatory challenges that AI-enabled products present are found in the cases of automated vehicles (AVs, such as self-driving cars) and AI-equipped unmanned aircraft systems (UAS, or “drones”). In the long run, AVs will likely save many lives by reducing driver error and increasing personal mobility, and UAS will offer many economic benefits. Yet public safety must be protected as these technologies are tested and begin to mature. The Department of Transportation (DOT) is using an approach to evolving the relevant regulations that is based on building expertise in the Department, creating safe spaces and test beds for experimentation, and working with industry and civil society to evolve performance-based regulations that will enable more uses as evidence of safe operation accumulates.WorkforceResearch and Workforce -- Government also has an important role to play in the advancement of AI through research and development and the growth of a skilled, diverse workforce. A separate strategic plan for Federally funded AI research and development is being released in conjunction with this report. The plan discusses the role of Federal R&D, identifies areas of opportunity, and recommends ways to coordinate R&D to maximize benefit and build a highly-trained workforce. Given the strategic importance of AI, moreover, it is appropriate for the Federal Government to monitor developments in the field worldwide in order to get early warning of important changes arising elsewhere in case these require changes in U.S. policy. The rapid growth of AI has dramatically increased the need for people with relevant skills to support and advance the field. An AI-enabled world demands a data-literate citizenry that is able to read, use, interpret, and communicate about data, and participate in policy debates about matters affected by AI. AI knowledge and education are increasingly emphasized in Federal Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) education programs. AI education is also a component of Computer Science for All, the President’s initiative to empower all American students from kindergarten through high school to learn computer science and be equipped with the computational thinking skills they need in a technology-driven world.EconomyEconomic Impacts of AI -- AI’s central economic effect in the short term will be the automation of tasks that could not be automated before. This will likely increase productivity and create wealth, but it may also affect particular types of jobs in different ways, reducing demand for certain skills that can be automated while increasing demand for other skills that are complementary to AI. Analysis by the White House Council of Economic Advisors (CEA) suggests that the negative effect of automation will be greatest on lower-wage jobs, and that there is a risk that AI-driven automation will increase the wage gap between less-educated and moreeducated workers, potentially increasing economic inequality. Public policy can address these risks, ensuring that workers are retrained and able to succeed in occupations that are complementary to, rather than competing with, automation. Public policy can also ensure that the economic benefits created by AI are shared broadly, and assure that AI responsibly ushers in a new age in the global economy.FairnessFairness, Safety, and Governance -- As AI technologies move toward broader deployment, technical experts, policy analysts, and ethicists have raised concerns about unintended consequences of widespread adoption. Use of AI to make consequential decisions about people, often replacing decisions made by human-driven bureaucratic processes, leads to concerns about how to ensure justice, fairness, and accountability—the same concerns voiced previously in the Administration’s Big Data: Seizing Opportunities, Preserving Values report of 2014,1 as well as the Report to the President on Big Data and Privacy: A Technological Perspective published by the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology in 2014.GovernanceTransparencyTransparency concerns focus not only on the data and algorithms involved, but also on the potential to have some form of explanation for any AI-based determination. Yet AI experts have cautioned that there are inherent challenges in trying to understand and predict the behavior of advanced AI systems.SafetyUse of AI to control physical-world equipment leads to concerns about safety, especially as systems are exposed to the full complexity of the human environment. A major challenge in AI safety is building systems that can safely transition from the “closed world” of the laboratory into the outside “open world” where unpredictable things can happen. Adapting gracefully to unforeseen situations is difficult yet necessary for safe operation. Experience in building other types of safety-critical systems and infrastructure, such as aircraft, power plants, bridges, and vehicles, has much to teach AI practitioners about verification and validation, how to build a safety case for a technology, how to manage risk, and how to communicate with stakeholders about risk. At a technical level, the challenges of fairness and safety are related. In both cases, practitioners strive to avoid unintended behavior, and to generate the evidence needed to give stakeholders justified confidence that unintended failures are unlikely.EthicsEthical training for AI practitioners and students is a necessary part of the solution. Ideally, every student learning AI, computer science, or data science would be exposed to curriculum and discussion on related ethics and security topics.ToolsHowever, ethics alone is not sufficient. Ethics can help practitioners understand their responsibilities to all stakeholders, but ethical training should be augmented with technical tools and methods for putting good intentions into practice by doing the technical work needed to prevent unacceptable outcomes.MethodsOutcomesSecurityGlobal Considerations and Security -- AI poses policy questions across a range of areas in international relations and security. AI has been a topic of interest in recent international discussions as countries, multilateral institutions, and other stakeholders have begun to access the benefits and challenges of AI. Dialogue and cooperation between these entities could help advance AI R&D and harness AI for good, while also addressing shared challenges. Today’s AI has important applications in cybersecurity, and is expected to play an increasing role for both defensive and offensive cyber measures. Currently, designing and operating secure systems requires significant time and attention from experts. Automating this expert work partially or entirely may increase security across a much broader range of systems and applications at dramatically lower cost, and could increase the agility of the Nation’s cyber-defenses. Using AI may help maintain the rapid response required to detect and react to the landscape of evolving threats. Challenging issues are raised by the potential use of AI in weapon systems. The United States has incorporated autonomy in certain weapon systems for decades, allowing for greater precision in the use of weapons and safer, more humane military operations. Nonetheless, moving away from direct human control of weapon systems involves some risks and can raise legal and ethical questions.HumanityThe key to incorporating autonomous and semi-autonomous weapon systems into American defense planning is to ensure that U.S. Government entities are always acting in accordance with international humanitarian law, taking appropriate steps to control proliferation, and working with partners and Allies to develop standards related to the development and use of such weapon systems. The United States has actively participated in ongoing international discussion on Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems, and anticipates continued robust international discussion of these potential weapon systems.LawAgencies across the U.S. Government are working to develop a single, government-wide policy, consistent with international humanitarian law, on autonomous and semi-autonomous weapons.SocietyLeverage AI and machine learning in ways that will benefit society_f30b91fa-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc1Private InstitutionsPublic InstitutionsPrivate and public institutions are encouraged to examine whether and how they can responsibly leverage AI and machine learning in ways that will benefit society. Social justice and public policy institutions that do not typically engage with advanced technologies and data science in their work should consider partnerships with AI researchers and practitioners that can help apply AI tactics to the broad social problems these institutions already address in other ways._f30b9380-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbcOpen Data & StandardsPrioritize open training data and open data standards in AI_f30b94e8-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc2Federal AgenciesFederal agencies should prioritize open training data and open data standards in AI. The government should emphasize the release of datasets that enable the use of AI to address social challenges. Potential steps may include developing an “Open Data for AI” initiative with the objective of releasing a significant number of government data sets to accelerate AI research and galvanize the use of open data standards and best practices across government, academia, and the private sector._f30b9678-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbcMissionsImprove the capacity of agencies to apply AI to their missions_f30b97ea-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc3The Federal Government should explore ways to improve the capacity of key agencies to apply AI to their missions. For example, Federal agencies should explore the potential to create DARPA-like organizations to support high-risk, high-reward AI research and its application, much as the Department of Education has done through its proposal to create an “ARPA-ED,” to support R&D to determine whether AI and other technologies could significantly improve student learning outcomes._f30b995c-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbcAI CoPDevelop a community of practice for AI practitioners_f30b9b28-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc4AI practitionersThe NSTC MLAI subcommittee should develop a community of practice for AI practitioners across government. Agencies should work together to develop and share standards and best practices around the use of AI in government operations. Agencies should ensure that Federal employee training programs include relevant AI opportunities._f30b9ca4-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbcRegulatory PolicyDraw on appropriate technical expertise at the senior level when setting regulatory policy for AI-enabled products_f30b9e20-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc5Agencies should draw on appropriate technical expertise at the senior level when setting regulatory policy for AI-enabled products. Effective regulation of AI-enabled products requires collaboration between agency leadership, staff knowledgeable about the existing regulatory framework and regulatory practices generally, and technical experts with knowledge of AI. Agency leadership should take steps to recruit the necessary technical talent, or identify it in existing agency staff, and should ensure that there are sufficient technical “seats at the table” in regulatory policy discussions._f30b9fce-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbcTechnology PerspectivesFoster a Federal workforce with more diverse perspectives on the current state of technology_f30ba33e-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc6Agencies should use the full range of personnel assignment and exchange models (e.g. hiring authorities) to foster a Federal workforce with more diverse perspectives on the current state of technology._f30ba4c4-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbcData SharingIncrease sharing of data for safety, research, and other purposes_f30ba672-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc7Department of TransportationThe Department of Transportation should work with industry and researchers on ways to increase sharing of data for safety, research, and other purposes. The future roles of AI in surface and air transportation are undeniable. Federal ActorsAccordingly, Federal actors should focus in the near-term on developing increasingly rich sets of data, consistent with consumer privacy, that can better inform policy-making as these technologies mature._f30ba802-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbcAir Traffic ManagementDevelop and implement an advanced and automated air traffic management system_f30ba988-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc8U.S. GovernmentThe U.S. Government should invest in developing and implementing an advanced and automated air traffic management system that is highly scalable, and can fully accommodate autonomous and piloted aircraft alike._f30bab40-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbcVehiclesDevelop a framework for regulation to enable the safe integration of fully automated vehicles_f30bacc6-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc9Department of TransportationThe Department of Transportation should continue to develop an evolving framework for regulation to enable the safe integration of fully automated vehicles and UAS, including novel vehicle designs, into the transportation system._f30bae56-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbcMonitoring & ReportingMonitor developments in AI and report regularly to senior Administration leadership about AI milestones_f30bb00e-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc10NSTC Subcommittee on Machine Learning and Artificial IntelligenceThe NSTC Subcommittee on Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence should monitor developments in AI, and report regularly to senior Administration leadership about the status of AI, especially with regard to milestones. MilestonesUpdate the list of milestones as knowledge advances_f30bb1a8-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc10.1The Subcommittee should update the list of milestones as knowledge advances and the consensus of experts changes over time.ReportsReport to the public on AI developments when appropriate_f30bb3a6-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc10.2The PublicThe Subcommittee should consider reporting to the public on AI developments, when appropriate.Other CountriesMonitor the state of AI in other countries_f30bb572-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc11U.S. GovernmentThe Government should monitor the state of AI in other countries, especially with respect to milestones._f30bb70c-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbcUpdatesKeep government updated on the general progress of AI in industry_f30bb8a6-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc12IndustryIndustry should work with government to keep government updated on the general progress of AI in industry, including the likelihood of milestones being reached soon._f30bba7c-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbcResearchPrioritize basic and long-term AI research_f30bbc2a-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc13Federal GovernmentThe Federal government should prioritize basic and long-term AI research. The Nation as a whole would benefit from a steady increase in Federal and private-sector AI R&D, with a particular emphasis on basic research and long-term, high-risk research initiatives. Because basic and long-term research especially are areas where the private sector is not likely to invest, Federal investments will be important for R&D in these areas._f30bbdc4-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbcAI WorkforceEnsure an appropriate increase in the size, quality, and diversity of the AI workforce_f30bbfae-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc14NSTC Subcommittee on MLAINSTC Subcommittee on NITRDNSTC Committee on Science, Technology, Engineering, and Education (CoSTEM)AI ResearchersAI SpecialistsAI UsersThe NSTC Subcommittees on MLAI and NITRD, in conjunction with the NSTC Committee on Science, Technology, Engineering, and Education (CoSTEM), should initiate a study on the AI workforce pipeline in order to develop actions that ensure an appropriate increase in the size, quality, and diversity of the workforce, including AI researchers, specialists, and users._f30bc15c-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbcU.S. Job MarketFurther investigate the effects of AI and automation on the U.S. job market and outline recommended policy responses_f30bc30a-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc15U.S. WorkersExecutive Office of the PresidentThe Executive Office of the President should publish a follow-on report by the end of this year, to further investigate the effects of AI and automation on the U.S. job market, and outline recommended policy responses._f30bc4f4-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbcDecision SupportEnsure the efficacy and fairness of AI systems to make or provide decision support_f30bc6a2-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc16Federal AgenciesFederal agencies that use AI-based systems to make or provide decision support for consequential decisions about individuals should take extra care to ensure the efficacy and fairness of those systems, based on evidence-based verification and validation._f30bc9fe-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbcGrantsEnsure that AI-based products or services purchased with Federal grant funds produce results in a sufficiently transparent fashion and are supported by evidence of efficacy and fairness_f30bcc38-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc17Federal AgenciesState GovernmentsLocal GovernmentsFederal agencies that make grants to state and local governments in support of the use of AI-based systems to make consequential decisions about individuals should review the terms of grants to ensure that AI-based products or services purchased with Federal grant funds produce results in a sufficiently transparent fashion and are supported by evidence of efficacy and fairness._f30bcdfa-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbcCurriculaInclude ethics, and related topics in security, privacy, and safety, as an integral part of curricula on AI, machine learning, computer science, and data science_f30bcfd0-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc18SchoolsUniversitiesSchools and universities should include ethics, and related topics in security, privacy, and safety, as an integral part of curricula on AI, machine learning, computer science, and data science._f30bd192-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbcMaturationWork together to continue progress toward a mature field of AI safety engineering_f30bd318-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc19AI ProfessionalsSafety ProfessionalsProfessional SocietiesAI professionals, safety professionals, and their professional societies should work together to continue progress toward a mature field of AI safety engineering._f30bd4a8-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbcInternational Engagement StrategyDevelop a government-wide strategy on international engagement related to AI_f30bd66a-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc20The U.S. Government should develop a government-wide strategy on international engagement related to AI, and develop a list of AI topical areas that need international engagement and monitoring.TopicsDevelop a list of AI topical areas that need international engagement and monitoring_f30bd7fa-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc20.1International StakeholdersDeep engagement with key international stakeholders_f30bd99e-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc21U.S. GovernmentThe U.S. Government should deepen its engagement with key international stakeholders, including foreign governments, international organizations, industry, academia, and others, to exchange information and facilitate collaboration on AI R&D._f30bdbd8-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbcCybersecurityAccount for the influence of AI on cybersecurity and of cybersecurity on AI_f30bdd72-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc22Agencies’ plans and strategies should account for the influence of AI on cybersecurity, and of cybersecurity on AI. Agencies involved in AI issues should engage their U.S. Government and private-sector cybersecurity colleagues for input on how to ensure that AI systems and ecosystems are secure and resilient to intelligent adversaries. Agencies involved in cybersecurity issues should engage their U.S. Government and private sector AI colleagues for innovative ways to apply AI for effective and efficient cybersecurity._f30bdf0c-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbcWeaponsDevelop a governmentwide policy on autonomous and semi-autonomous weapons_f30be0e2-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc23The U.S. Government should complete the development of a single, governmentwide policy, consistent with international humanitarian law, on autonomous and semi-autonomous weapons._f30be286-2050-11e9-85d5-0d16d9e8efbc2016-10-312019-01-24https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/sites/default/files/whitehouse_files/microsites/ostp/NSTC/preparing_for_the_future_of_ai.pdfOwenAmburOwen.Ambur@verizon.net