AN AGENDA FOR ACTION BY FOUNDATION LEADERSThe preceding section laid out a leadership approach for improving organizational vigilance. How urgently this is needed and in what areas can be partly assessed using our survey. What executives should do in their own foundation can only be fully answered with deeper background information about the organization, its strategy and the competitive environment. Short of engaging in an internal consulting project, there are several initiatives that most leaders can fruitfully start to be followed by more tailored assessments later. Based on the survey results and our past experiences, here is a flexible action agenda to consider.[These] are just some suggested activities that vigilant leaders can launch to change the mindsets, orientations and culture in their own foundation. The ... list is by no means complete, and effective leaders will create their own customized approaches. For example, you could explore collaborations with other foundations that are strong in areas where you are weak and vice versa. Assuming you are not in direct competition, it may make sense to pool your vigilance resources and serve as each other’s strategic radar. Cooperation can take place informally, through weekly lunches, or more formally through CoF meetings.John S. and James L. Knight FoundationKF_a1198cd6-ebbf-11df-ae5d-52537a64ea2aAcknowledgements: the authors thank the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation for its generous support of this study as well as the 345 organizations who participated in the survey. They are also grateful for the research support provided by the Council on Foundations, the Filene Institute and the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. The report draws on a forthcoming MIT Press book by George S. Day and Paul J.H. Schoemaker titled See Sooner-Act Faster: How Vigilant Leaders Thrive in an Era of Digital Disruption where readers can find further background.Paul J. H. SchoemakerCo-Author -- Paul J. H. Schoemaker was the founder and chairman of Decision Strategies and is a prolific author. He served on the faculties of the University of Chicago and the Wharton School.George S. DayCo-Author -- George S. Day is Geoffrey T. Boisi Professor Emeritus at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, where he founded the Mack Institute for Innovation Management.Wharton Schoolof the University of PennsylvaniaSam GillCo-Author -- Sam Gill is a vice president at the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation.Council on FoundationsFilene InstituteFoundation LeadersVigilant LeadersFoundation Boards of DirectorsEngage your board more deeply in vigilance activities and try to tap into its wider external networks. You can also suggest increasing the amount of time the board spends on vigilance issues versus operating agenda items. Relatedly, assess the board's makeup to see whether more diverse perspectives are perhaps needed. Being vigilant requires an inquisitive culture in which every person is valued as a potential touch point with the outside world. The board members personal and professional networks may reach far and wide and, as such, should be viewed as valuable sensors in your own strategic radar systems. After all, organizational vigilance is very much a team sport.More vigilant organizations_c79e0100-6ee9-11e9-ab65-aebdac9d818fTo offer an action agenda for foundation leaders to consider_c79e02cc-6ee9-11e9-ab65-aebdac9d818fPollingPoll all leaders._c79e039e-6ee9-11e9-ab65-aebdac9d818f1Ask each member of your executive team (and board perhaps) to take the vigilance survey privately; then compare and contrast the results. When all are done, collect the scores -- either anonymously via Survey Monkey or with names disclosed -- and zero in on low scores as well as scores showing high variability. It is important to understand that differences of views can be due to varying interpretations of the questions, implicit assumptions made or diverse perspectives about what your organization is good at or not. Rather than get into heated debates, try to share examples where either seeing sooner or acting faster was deficient versus excellent. Treat these as learning vignettes to see how best practices can be more widely shared within your own foundation as well to identify areas of systemic weakness. Populating the following matrix with examples will help your foundation to learn collectively from some past hits and misses.ExemplarsShare examples where either seeing sooner or acting faster was deficient versus excellent._c79e0452-6ee9-11e9-ab65-aebdac9d818f1.1LearningCompare the examples to learn how best practices can be more widely shared as well to identify areas of systemic weakness._37c5d90c-6f9a-11e9-baa0-968aaf9d818f1.2Threats & OpportunitiesIdentify internal and external threats and opportunities._37c5db8c-6f9a-11e9-baa0-968aaf9d818f1.2ComplacencyAvoid complacency._c79e051a-6ee9-11e9-ab65-aebdac9d818f2Considering the high scores most foundations gave themselves, compared to the corporations we sampled, many may be vulnerable to setbacks and surprises. Most organizations reported low scores when asked about challenges and turbulence that may lie ahead. With tougher times expected around the corner, the focus should be less on past strengths and more on building resilient capabilities to weather storms from economic malaise, further digital disruptions and new business models. In short, make sure you are not in denial. The survey shows a high degree of confidence among foundation leaders in their vigilance capabilities, yet 52% of them also see significant potential for major disruptions in the next five years. This forward look is in sharp contrast to the stability that was reported in the past.Red TeamsUse red teams to play the role of the loyal opposition._c79e05d8-6ee9-11e9-ab65-aebdac9d818f2.1To challenge current thinking and a culture that is perhaps overly self-satisfied, consider using so-called red teams. Whereas blue teams are tasked with executing the current strategy and plans, a red team plays the role of the loyal opposition. Such a team should be comprised of knowledgeable insiders who are highly respected inside the organization and whose task it is to challenge the executive group's and board’s current thinking.FocusFocus outwardly._c79e0696-6ee9-11e9-ab65-aebdac9d818f3Divergent ViewsExpose diverse points of view._c79e0786-6ee9-11e9-ab65-aebdac9d818f3.1Get out of the building to see what is going on and allow yourself to be exposed to diverse points of view.LearningsReport learnings from exploratory excursions._37c5dcae-6f9a-11e9-baa0-968aaf9d818f3.2Spend leadership meeting time reporting on what each person learned in these exploratory excursions, especially anomalies, surprises and growing undercurrents.ActivitiesLook beyond core activities._37c5dd9e-6f9a-11e9-baa0-968aaf9d818f3.3The aim is to look beyond your core activities.NetworksTap external organizational networks._37c5de84-6f9a-11e9-baa0-968aaf9d818f3.4Business Round TableConference BoardAssociation of National AdvertisersTo overcome blind spots and transcend narrow information channels, tap your external organizational networks more fully. Many companies belong to industry trade associations, ranging from narrow industry verticals to wide agglomerations, such as the Business Round Table, the Conference Board and the Association of National Advertisers.OutreachReach beyond the common networks._37c5df60-6f9a-11e9-baa0-968aaf9d818f3.4.1Members of these networks exchange information, collect different perceptions of shared interests and develop beneficial business relationships. However, since these associations function as affinity groups, they often tend to reinforce existing mental models -- in some cases, becoming "echo chambers," where like-minded managers simply confirm their own biases and convictions. Leaders try to reach beyond these common networks.SignalsExplore weak signals._c79e084e-6ee9-11e9-ab65-aebdac9d818f4Deven SharmaWhen Deven Sharma, as president of Standard & Poor's, testified before Congress in fall 2008 about the financial crash, he said: "Virtually no one -- homeowners, financial institutions, rating agencies, regulators, or investors -- anticipated what is occurring." Virtually no one, that is, if you ignore prominent economists such as Paul Krugman, Dean Baker and Robert Shiller and don’t count savvy investors like Steve Eisman, Michael Burry and John Paulson.Paul KrugmanTo paraphrase Nobel Laureate Krugman, he and his fellow "nobodies" didn't view the financial crisis as a "black swan"; they saw it as the elephant in the room -- and elephants don't tiptoe and sneak up on you. Even though annual housing prices had not declined in nominal terms in modern memory, mortgages may have become much too easy to obtain.Dean BakerRobert ShillerSteve EismanHedge fund manager Eisman and a few colleagues dove into the data, collected input from multiple sources and spotted inconsistencies in the performance of the housing market. For several years, they resisted the temptation to do what everybody else was doing: going for the quick buck. Instead, they shorted the subprime mortgage market, which eventually yielded around $1.5 billion for their hedge fund FrontPoint Partners.Michael BurryJohn PaulsonDataConsider available data in detail._c79e0920-6ee9-11e9-ab65-aebdac9d818f4.1InputCollect input from multiple sources._37c5e028-6f9a-11e9-baa0-968aaf9d818f4.2InconsistenciesReveal inconsistencies._37c5e12c-6f9a-11e9-baa0-968aaf9d818f4.3Scenario PlanningUse scenario planning. _c79e0a10-6ee9-11e9-ab65-aebdac9d818f5The aim in scenario planning is to prevail no matter what happens, which requires being vigilant about external change and building internal capabilities that allow your foundation to remain agile and resilient. Scenario planning, as traditionally used, provides a useful stress test for your current strategy.External ChangesDevelop different views of how the external environment may change._c79e0ae2-6ee9-11e9-ab65-aebdac9d818f5.1By developing different views of how the external environment may change, foundations can stress test their program and assess whether they have sufficient flexibility to handle change or turbulence (Thompson and MacMillan, 2013).Scanning & ForeshadowingScan widely and detect signals that foreshadow change._37c5e212-6f9a-11e9-baa0-968aaf9d818f5.2Scenarios can also be used to scan wider and detect signals that foreshadow change or disruption.Technologies, Trends & RegulationsPick up early indicators about how emerging technologies or social trends may disrupt activities or why new regulations may alter the environment. _37c5e2f8-6f9a-11e9-baa0-968aaf9d818f5.3Dashboards can pick up early indicators about how emerging technologies or social trends may disrupt your current activities or why new regulations may alter the environment.UncertaintiesUnderstand not just the deeper trends at work but the key uncertainties whose outcomes could materially affect your planning field in years ahead._37c5e406-6f9a-11e9-baa0-968aaf9d818f5.3LegoFor the Lego company in Denmark, these uncertainties included the diffusion rate of online media and video gaming, the speed to market of manufacturers who would jump on Lego’s patent expirations and the sustainability of Wall Street's enthusiasm for new dotcoms at the time.A key challenge in scenario planning is to understand not just the deeper trends at work but the key uncertainties whose outcomes could materially affect your planning field in years ahead. PossibilitiesReflect a range of future possibilities._37c5e500-6f9a-11e9-baa0-968aaf9d818f5.4The key is to reflect a range of future possibilities and to make sure that you develop several scenarios that go well beyond business as usual. While scenario-based analysis does not eliminate uncertainty about changing industry or consumer dynamics, it can help you make sense of new information more quickly and put robust strategies in place.NetworksLeverage social networks._c79e0c2c-6ee9-11e9-ab65-aebdac9d818f6Worldviews, Knowledge & ExperiencesGain exposure to people with different worldviews, knowledge and experience._c79e0d1c-6ee9-11e9-ab65-aebdac9d818f6.1To combat insularity and myopia, strategic leaders need to plug into important spheres that expose them to people with different worldviews, knowledge and experience. They may look into joining small groups of non-competing companies, such as those inspired by former Medtronic CEO Bill George, called True North Groups.Failures & MissesShare failures and misses to turn blind spots into building blocks for sharper anticipation and more strategic leadership._37c5e5fa-6f9a-11e9-baa0-968aaf9d818f6.2ExecutivesBy sharing failures and misses, executives turn their blind spots into building blocks for sharper anticipation and more strategic leadership.Creation & MiningCreate and mine networks._37c5e730-6f9a-11e9-baa0-968aaf9d818f6.3Reflect about how well you create and mine your own networks: What purpose does each one serve for you? Do they corroborate or confront your beliefs? How can you push yourself further out on the periphery?BlogsTrack cutting-edge blogs._37c5e848-6f9a-11e9-baa0-968aaf9d818f6.4Elon MuskContrarians such as Elon Musk delight in exploring ideas outside of the mainstream. Always wary of status-quo views, they prefer honest assessments that reflect how much -- or how little -- is truly known about the issue at hand, and this openness allows them to better anticipate what lurks around the corner.Nate SilverTo become a vigilant leader, you must readily accept that surprise and change will be your constant companions, and this highlights an intriguing paradox highlighted by Nate Silver: To see sooner and scan wider, you must proceed with equal parts passion and humility.To scan wider, you may want to start tracking cutting-edge blogs, tap into the "wisdom of the crowd," join LinkedIn interest groups outside of your field and glean deeper insights from data collected in your business or social networks.Crowd WisdomTap into the "wisdom of the crowd"._37c5ea8c-6f9a-11e9-baa0-968aaf9d818f6.5Interest GroupsJoin LinkedIn interest groups outside of your field and glean deeper insights from data collected in your business or social networks. _37c5ebc2-6f9a-11e9-baa0-968aaf9d818f6.6LinkedIn2019-04-102019-05-05https://kf-site-production.s3.amazonaws.com/media_elements/files/000/000/343/original/NoTimeforComplacency.pdfOwenAmburOwen.Ambur@verizon.net