Federal Fiscal Sustainability Framework Establishes measurable goals, objectives, and performance indicators for stabilizing the federal debt-to-GDP ratio within model-derived thresholds, implementing a blended fiscal adjustment combining revenue and spending measures, and preserving intergenerational equity in federal borrowing decisions across the period 2026-2035. FFSF ~ Federal Fiscal Sustainability Framework: Grounded in Criscitello, D. (April 11, 2026), "How Much Government Debt Is Too Much? Recent Research Offers a Surprisingly Precise Answer," and the underlying NBER Working Paper w34397 (Elenev, V.; Landvoigt, T.; Van Nieuwerburgh, S.), which identifies a hard austerity threshold of 175-190% of GDP and an uncertainty-adjusted threshold of approximately 120% of GDP. CBO baseline projects debt reaching approximately 120% of GDP within a decade and 170% by 2055. See also: https://nber.org/papers/w34397 ^^ Submitter's Note: This plan was compiled by Claude.ai and I'd rather call it "performance plan" than a "framework". However, since it is a commendable first draft, this note is the only change I am making to it. U.S. Federal Government USG uuid-a1b2c3d4-e5f6-7890-abcd-ef1234567890 The executive, legislative, and judicial branches of the United States government, collectively responsible for fiscal policy, appropriations, taxation, and federal debt management. Future Taxpayers Generations of Americans who will bear the cost of debt accumulated through current consumption spending without commensurate benefit. Debt Burden Bearer Inherits obligations incurred by current policymakers without receiving proportionate investment benefits. Beneficiary Bond Market Investors Domestic and foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities whose confidence sustains the fiscal privilege that keeps U.S. borrowing costs lower than they would otherwise be. Creditor Provides financing to the federal government and sets market interest rates reflecting perceived fiscal sustainability. Performer Program Beneficiaries Current recipients of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid whose benefits are at risk from fiscal instability or abrupt mandatory spending cuts. Benefit Recipient Receives federal transfer payments and services funded through mandatory spending programs driving the long-term fiscal imbalance. Beneficiary Congressional Budget Office Provides independent economic and budget projections used as baseline references for fiscal performance measurement under this framework. Scorekeeper Publishes the official debt-to-GDP baseline projections against which actual results are assessed. Performer Government Accountability Office Assesses fiscal trajectory risks and the adequacy of debt management strategies in relation to long-term sustainability. Independent Auditor Reports to Congress on fiscal risks and the sustainability of current borrowing trajectories. Performer A fiscally sustainable federal government whose borrowing serves investment in future generations rather than the consumption of present ones, and whose credible commitment to fiscal adjustment preserves the full faith and credit of the United States. uuid-vis-ffsf-0001-2026 Manages federal debt within model-derived sustainability thresholds by implementing a credible, blended fiscal adjustment that equitably balances the interests of current program beneficiaries, present taxpayers, and future generations. uuid-mis-ffsf-0001-2026 Fiscal Credibility Maintains the primacy of the full faith and credit of the United States as a global safe-haven asset by committing to and following through on fiscally responsible policies. Intergenerational Equity Distinguishes between debt incurred for investment that benefits future generations and debt incurred for current consumption that imposes costs on them without commensurate benefit. Policy Certainty Recognizes that political uncertainty over the fiscal adjustment path is itself a measurable risk that raises borrowing costs and compresses the safe borrowing threshold independently of the actual debt level. Debt Stabilization Arrests the projected growth of federal debt as a share of GDP and stabilizes it below the uncertainty-adjusted austerity threshold identified in NBER Working Paper w34397. uuid-goal-01-ffsf-2026-0001 1 Future Taxpayers Bears the primary obligation of servicing debt accumulated under current policies. Primary Beneficiary Benefits most directly from successful debt stabilization through lower future tax burdens and preserved fiscal capacity. Beneficiary Debt Stabilization ~ FFSF Goal 1: CBO projects debt reaching approximately 120% of GDP within a decade and 170% by 2055. NBER w34397 identifies a hard austerity threshold of 175-190% of GDP and an uncertainty-adjusted threshold of approximately 120% of GDP. Stabilization at or below 110% by 2035 provides a 10-point safety margin below the uncertainty-adjusted threshold while demonstrating credible commitment to fiscal discipline. Some forecasts accounting for likely future policy choices project debt toward 175% of GDP or higher by mid-century. ^^ Taken together, the four historical trend series in this Goal and in Goals 2 and 3 tell a consistent story: the primary deficit has widened, the debt ratio has risen, mandatory programs have expanded their GDP share, and the threshold safety margin has been cut in half — all simultaneously, all between FY2015 and FY2025, all without a triggering crisis. The absence of a crisis is not evidence of safety; per NBER w34397, the danger mechanism is the gradual erosion of investor confidence, not a sudden break. The trend lines are the warning. Trajectory Reversal Reverses the upward trajectory of the federal debt-to-GDP ratio from the CBO baseline of approximately 120% by 2035 to 110% or below by FY2035. uuid-obj-01-01-ffsf-2026-0001 1.1 Congressional Budget Office Provides annual baseline projections and measures actual debt-to-GDP ratio against which progress is assessed. Measurement Authority Publishes Budget and Economic Outlook annually, providing the official debt-to-GDP baseline. Performer Trajectory Reversal ~ FFSF Objective 1.1: CBO baseline projects debt reaching approximately 120% of GDP by 2035 absent policy change. A target of 110% requires cumulative deficit reduction of roughly 10 percentage points of GDP over the decade, achievable through the blended adjustment approach specified in Goal 2. Debt has averaged just 50% of GDP over the past half century; 110% remains well above historical norms but represents a credible near-term stabilization target. 1.1.1 Debt-to-GDP Ratio Percent Status uuid-pi-01-01-01-ffsf-2026-0001 2026-10-01 2030-09-30 115 On Track Reduces debt held by the public as a share of GDP to no more than 115% by FY2030, bending the CBO baseline curve downward and confirming that enacted adjustment measures are producing the projected trajectory change. 2026-10-01 2035-09-30 110 Target Reduces debt held by the public as a share of GDP to no more than 110% by FY2035, establishing a 10-point safety margin below the uncertainty-adjusted austerity threshold of approximately 120% of GDP identified in NBER w34397. TBD To be reported annually by CBO in its Budget and Economic Outlook. Baseline as of April 2026 is approximately 100% of GDP; projected to reach approximately 120% within a decade under current law with no policy changes. 2014-10-01 2015-09-30 73.6 Historical FY2015 debt held by the public was 73.6% of GDP per OMB Historical Table 7.1. Pre-COVID nadir after the post-2008 crisis peak of 70.4% in FY2012. 2015-10-01 2016-09-30 76.4 Historical FY2016 debt rose to 76.4% of GDP as structural spending growth resumed following Budget Control Act sequester relief. 2016-10-01 2017-09-30 76.0 Historical FY2017 debt held nearly flat at 76.0% of GDP; stronger revenues partially offset continued spending growth. 2017-10-01 2018-09-30 78.0 Historical FY2018 debt climbed to 78.0% of GDP following the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act revenue reduction combined with two-year budget deal spending increases. 2018-10-01 2019-09-30 79.2 Historical FY2019 debt reached 79.2% of GDP, the pre-pandemic high, as discretionary caps were lifted and the structural deficit widened to 4.6% of GDP. 2019-10-01 2020-09-30 100.1 Historical FY2020 debt surged to 100.1% of GDP, the first breach of the 100% threshold since World War II, driven entirely by COVID-19 emergency spending. Source: OMB Historical Table 7.1. 2020-10-01 2021-09-30 102.3 Historical FY2021 debt reached 102.3% of GDP as the American Rescue Plan and continued pandemic-era programs sustained peak borrowing. Source: OMB Historical Table 7.1. 2021-10-01 2022-09-30 96.9 Historical FY2022 debt declined to 96.9% of GDP as nominal GDP surged with post-pandemic recovery and emergency programs wound down. Source: OMB Historical Table 7.1. 2022-10-01 2023-09-30 97.5 Historical FY2023 debt edged back up to 97.5% of GDP as structural deficits resumed and student loan accounting revisions added to outlays. Source: OMB Historical Table 7.1. 2023-10-01 2024-09-30 97.4 Historical FY2024 debt held approximately flat at 97.4% of GDP; revenues grew but mandatory spending and net interest costs (3.1% of GDP) continued rising. Source: CBO Monthly Budget Review Nov. 2025. 2024-10-01 2025-09-30 99.8 Reported FY2025 debt rose to 99.8% of GDP per CBO Monthly Budget Review November 2025. Net interest surpassed $1 trillion for the first time in U.S. history. Debt-to-GDP Ratio PI ~ Annual Debt-to-GDP Ratio Measurement: Source: CBO Budget and Economic Outlook, published annually. The uncertainty-adjusted austerity threshold of approximately 120% of GDP (NBER w34397) is the upper safety bound for this indicator. Current margin of approximately 20 points is projected to compress to near zero by 2035 under the CBO no-policy-change baseline. ^^ Note: FY2020 (100.1%) and FY2021 (102.3%) are COVID-19 emergency outliers reflecting one-time legislation rather than structural fiscal policy; stylesheets rendering trend lines may wish to mark these years distinctly to avoid overstating the underlying structural trajectory. Threshold Margin Maintains a minimum safety margin of 10 percentage points of GDP below the uncertainty-adjusted austerity threshold of approximately 120% of GDP throughout the entire planning period. uuid-obj-01-02-ffsf-2026-0002 1.2 Threshold Margin ~ FFSF Objective 1.2: NBER w34397 finds that fiscal policy uncertainty alone -- independent of the actual debt level -- compresses the safe borrowing limit from 175-190% to approximately 120% of GDP. Political gridlock between administrations favoring tax increases versus spending cuts is the primary source of this uncertainty discount. When investors cannot predict which adjustment is coming, they demand higher interest rates as insurance, shrinking the government's financial cushion before a single hard choice has been made. A 10-point margin below the 120% uncertainty threshold provides a buffer against further compression under adverse political scenarios. 1.2.1 Threshold Safety Margin Percent Status uuid-pi-01-02-01-ffsf-2026-0002 2026-10-01 2035-09-30 10 Maintained Maintains the gap between the actual federal debt-to-GDP ratio and the uncertainty-adjusted austerity threshold of approximately 120% of GDP at no less than 10 percentage points in every fiscal year of the planning period, preventing any scenario in which the threshold is approached under adverse economic or political conditions. TBD As of April 2026, debt is approximately 100% of GDP, yielding a current margin of approximately 20 percentage points. Under the CBO no-policy-change baseline, this margin compresses to near zero by 2035, making sustained policy action the prerequisite for maintaining this indicator. 2014-10-01 2015-09-30 46.4 Historical FY2015 safety margin was 46.4 points below the 120% uncertainty-adjusted austerity threshold (120.0 - 73.6%). Margin has compressed 26.2 points since FY2015 without any policy action. Derived from OMB/CBO debt data versus NBER w34397. 2015-10-01 2016-09-30 43.6 Historical FY2016 safety margin was 43.6 points below the 120% uncertainty-adjusted austerity threshold (120.0 - 76.4%). Margin has compressed 26.2 points since FY2015 without any policy action. Derived from OMB/CBO debt data versus NBER w34397. 2016-10-01 2017-09-30 44.0 Historical FY2017 safety margin was 44.0 points below the 120% uncertainty-adjusted austerity threshold (120.0 - 76.0%). Margin has compressed 26.2 points since FY2015 without any policy action. Derived from OMB/CBO debt data versus NBER w34397. 2017-10-01 2018-09-30 42.0 Historical FY2018 safety margin was 42.0 points below the 120% uncertainty-adjusted austerity threshold (120.0 - 78.0%). Margin has compressed 26.2 points since FY2015 without any policy action. Derived from OMB/CBO debt data versus NBER w34397. 2018-10-01 2019-09-30 40.8 Historical FY2019 safety margin was 40.8 points below the 120% uncertainty-adjusted austerity threshold (120.0 - 79.2%). Margin has compressed 26.2 points since FY2015 without any policy action. Derived from OMB/CBO debt data versus NBER w34397. 2019-10-01 2020-09-30 19.9 Historical FY2020 safety margin was 19.9 points below the 120% uncertainty-adjusted austerity threshold (120.0 - 100.1%). Margin has compressed 26.2 points since FY2015 without any policy action. Derived from OMB/CBO debt data versus NBER w34397. 2020-10-01 2021-09-30 17.7 Historical FY2021 safety margin was 17.7 points below the 120% uncertainty-adjusted austerity threshold (120.0 - 102.3%). Margin has compressed 26.2 points since FY2015 without any policy action. Derived from OMB/CBO debt data versus NBER w34397. 2021-10-01 2022-09-30 23.1 Historical FY2022 safety margin was 23.1 points below the 120% uncertainty-adjusted austerity threshold (120.0 - 96.9%). Margin has compressed 26.2 points since FY2015 without any policy action. Derived from OMB/CBO debt data versus NBER w34397. 2022-10-01 2023-09-30 22.5 Historical FY2023 safety margin was 22.5 points below the 120% uncertainty-adjusted austerity threshold (120.0 - 97.5%). Margin has compressed 26.2 points since FY2015 without any policy action. Derived from OMB/CBO debt data versus NBER w34397. 2023-10-01 2024-09-30 22.6 Historical FY2024 safety margin was 22.6 points below the 120% uncertainty-adjusted austerity threshold (120.0 - 97.4%). Margin has compressed 26.2 points since FY2015 without any policy action. Derived from OMB/CBO debt data versus NBER w34397. 2024-10-01 2025-09-30 20.2 Reported FY2025 safety margin was 20.2 points below the 120% uncertainty-adjusted austerity threshold (120.0 - 99.8%). Margin has compressed 26.2 points since FY2015 without any policy action. Derived from OMB/CBO debt data versus NBER w34397. The compression of the threshold safety margin from 46.4 points in FY2015 to 20.2 points in FY2025 is the single most important trend line in this document. It shows that the United States has consumed more than half its uncertainty-adjusted fiscal headroom in one decade — not through a war or financial crisis, but through structural policy drift. Excluding the COVID outlier years FY2020–2021, the underlying trend still shows a steady compression of roughly 1.5 points per year. At that pace the margin reaches zero — and the uncertainty-adjusted austerity threshold is breached — around FY2034, consistent with the CBO projection that debt reaches 120% of GDP within a decade. Blended Adjustment Implements a deficit reduction strategy combining both revenue increases and spending restraint, avoiding the economic costs and political infeasibility of relying exclusively on either instrument. uuid-goal-02-ffsf-2026-0003 2 Current Taxpayers Bears the cost of revenue increases and the economic impacts of fiscal adjustment measures enacted under this goal. Revenue Source Provides the tax base from which revenue-side adjustment measures are drawn. Performer Program Beneficiaries Faces potential reforms to Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid as part of the mandatory spending component of the blended adjustment. Adjustment Stakeholder Has a direct interest in the design and pace of mandatory spending reforms undertaken to achieve fiscal balance. Beneficiary Blended Adjustment ~ FFSF Goal 2: Criscitello (2026) summarizes the NBER w34397 finding that spending cuts reduce demand and give the Federal Reserve room to cut interest rates, while tax increases reduce take-home pay and can simultaneously slow the economy and push prices up. Neither approach is painless in isolation; each has hard limits. A blended approach avoids the worst of both extremes and is likely the economically smarter path, even if it remains the politically harder one. The honest answer for restoring U.S. fiscal sanity is almost certainly some combination of both revenue and spending measures. Primary Surplus Achieves a federal primary budget surplus of at least 1% of GDP by FY2032, establishing that revenues exceed non-interest expenditures and that the debt-to-GDP ratio can stabilize without relying on nominal GDP growth assumptions alone. uuid-obj-02-01-ffsf-2026-0004 2.1 Primary Surplus ~ FFSF Objective 2.1: The primary balance -- revenues minus non-interest spending -- is the most direct indicator of fiscal adjustment progress. A primary surplus of 1% of GDP by FY2032 signals that the government is generating enough revenue to cover current spending and apply residual resources to debt service, stabilizing the debt trajectory under any plausible interest rate scenario. The FY2027 budget's assumption of 3% annual GDP growth (roughly double the CBO projection) as its primary fiscal improvement mechanism illustrates the risk of relying on growth assumptions rather than structural adjustment. 2.1.1 Primary Balance Percent Status uuid-pi-02-01-01-ffsf-2026-0004 2026-10-01 2029-09-30 -2 Improving Reduces the primary deficit to no worse than -2% of GDP by FY2029, reflecting initial implementation of blended adjustment measures and establishing a credible glide path toward primary balance. 2026-10-01 2032-09-30 1 Target Achieves a primary surplus of at least +1% of GDP by FY2032 through a combination of revenue measures and mandatory spending reforms, as scored by CBO on enacted legislation. TBD To be reported by OMB in the annual federal budget Mid-Session Review and Historical Tables. Current primary deficit is estimated at approximately 3-4% of GDP absent enacted adjustment. 2014-10-01 2015-09-30 -1.1 Historical FY2015 primary deficit was -1.1% of GDP; net interest 1.3% of GDP accounted for over half the total 2.4% deficit. Post-2008 consolidation low. Source: OMB Historical Table 1.2. 2015-10-01 2016-09-30 -1.8 Historical FY2016 primary deficit widened to -1.8% of GDP as structural spending resumed after BCA sequester easing. Source: OMB Historical Table 1.2. 2016-10-01 2017-09-30 -2.0 Historical FY2017 primary deficit was -2.0% of GDP; mandatory outlays grew faster than revenues. Source: OMB Historical Table 1.2. 2017-10-01 2018-09-30 -2.2 Historical FY2018 primary deficit widened to -2.2% of GDP following the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and two-year budget deal. Source: OMB Historical Table 1.2. 2018-10-01 2019-09-30 -2.8 Historical FY2019 primary deficit reached -2.8% of GDP, the widest pre-COVID primary shortfall in over a decade. Total deficit 4.6%; net interest 1.8% of GDP. Source: OMB Historical Table 1.2. 2019-10-01 2020-09-30 -13.3 Historical FY2020 primary deficit surged to -13.3% of GDP under CARES Act emergency spending, the largest peacetime primary shortfall in U.S. history. Source: OMB Historical Table 1.2. 2020-10-01 2021-09-30 -11.0 Historical FY2021 primary deficit was -11.0% of GDP, still severely elevated by the American Rescue Plan and pandemic-era transfers. Source: OMB Historical Table 1.2. 2021-10-01 2022-09-30 -3.5 Historical FY2022 primary deficit narrowed sharply to -3.5% of GDP as pandemic programs expired and nominal GDP growth boosted revenues. Source: OMB Historical Table 1.2. 2022-10-01 2023-09-30 -3.9 Historical FY2023 primary deficit widened to -3.9% of GDP, driven by student loan accounting adjustments and resumed mandatory spending growth. Source: OMB Historical Table 1.2. 2023-10-01 2024-09-30 -2.5 Historical FY2024 primary deficit approximately -2.5% of GDP; total deficit 5.6%, net interest 3.1% of GDP. Source: CBO Budget and Economic Outlook Jan. 2025 and OMB Historical Table 1.2. 2024-10-01 2025-09-30 -2.7 Reported FY2025 primary deficit approximately -2.7% of GDP; total deficit 5.9%, net interest 3.2% of GDP. Source: CBO Monthly Budget Review November 2025. Adjustment Balance Ensures that revenue-side measures comprise between 40% and 60% of total enacted 10-year deficit reduction, confirming a genuinely blended adjustment rather than exclusive reliance on either spending cuts or tax increases. uuid-obj-02-02-ffsf-2026-0005 2.2 Adjustment Balance ~ FFSF Objective 2.2: The NBER w34397 research does not directly model a blended approach but its findings point toward it: each instrument alone has hard limits. Deep spending cuts can deprive millions of citizens of vital services and benefits; tax increases eventually reach a ceiling where higher rates bring in less revenue, not more. A 40-60% revenue share of enacted 10-year deficit reduction is consistent with historical fiscal consolidations in comparable advanced economies and avoids both the inflationary risk of pure tax increases and the demand-collapse risk of pure spending cuts. 2.2.1 Revenue Share of Deficit Reduction Percent Status uuid-pi-02-02-01-ffsf-2026-0005 2026-10-01 2035-09-30 50 Balanced Achieves a revenue share of 40-60% of all enacted 10-year deficit reduction measures (target midpoint: 50%), as scored by CBO, confirming that the blended adjustment does not shift the entire burden to either taxpayers or program beneficiaries. TBD To be calculated from cumulative CBO scores of deficit reduction legislation enacted between FY2026 and FY2035. As of April 2026, no qualifying deficit reduction legislation has been enacted. Credible Commitment Publishes a 10-year Fiscal Sustainability Framework by January 2027 specifying the mix of revenue and spending measures to be pursued, directly reducing the investor uncertainty that compresses the safe borrowing threshold. uuid-obj-02-03-ffsf-2026-0006 2.3 Bond Market Investors Responds to credible fiscal signals by reducing the uncertainty premium embedded in Treasury yields, expanding the government's effective safe borrowing capacity. Signal Receiver Adjusts required yields on U.S. Treasury securities based on perceived credibility of the fiscal adjustment path. Beneficiary Credible Commitment ~ FFSF Objective 2.3: NBER w34397 finds that political uncertainty over the fiscal adjustment path -- not just the debt level itself -- compresses the safe borrowing threshold from 175-190% to approximately 120% of GDP. A credibly published, bipartisan fiscal framework directly addresses the uncertainty discount by signaling to markets how the debt will eventually be addressed. The FY2027 budget omits standard deficit and debt projections entirely, moving in the opposite direction from what this objective requires. Prolonged disagreement over whether America will tax or cut its way back to balance is, by itself, a force eroding the fiscal foundation. 2.3.1 Framework Publication Number Status uuid-pi-02-03-01-ffsf-2026-0006 2026-10-01 2027-01-31 1 Published Publishes one 10-year Fiscal Sustainability Framework by January 31, 2027, transmitted formally to Congress with CBO scoring, specifying the revenue and spending components of the planned blended adjustment and the debt-to-GDP trajectory it produces. TBD The FY2027 budget released in April 2026 omits standard deficit and debt projections, proposes no meaningful changes to mandatory spending programs, and relies on an assumed GDP growth rate of 3% per year -- roughly double the CBO projection -- for its claimed fiscal improvement. No qualifying framework has been published as of April 26, 2026. Intergenerational Equity Distinguishes between debt incurred for investment that creates lasting benefits for future generations and debt incurred to finance current consumption, ensuring that subsequent generations do not inherit obligations without commensurate assets or services. uuid-goal-03-ffsf-2026-0007 3 Future Generations Americans not yet born or not yet of taxpaying age who will inherit both the obligations and the assets of current federal borrowing decisions, with no voice in those decisions. Intergenerational Stakeholder Inherits the full consequences of current fiscal choices, including debt service obligations, program benefit commitments, and the public assets and infrastructure financed by investment borrowing. Beneficiary Intergenerational Equity ~ FFSF Goal 3: Criscitello (2026) frames the core moral dimension: when the government borrows to invest in roads, research, and education, future generations inherit both the debt and the benefit -- that is defensible. When it borrows to fund today's consumption, future generations inherit the bill with none of the benefit. First generation spends; subsequent generations pay. That is not economics; it is a moral question about what we owe our children, grandchildren, and others who come after us. This goal operationalizes that distinction through capital budgeting transparency and mandatory spending growth constraints. Investment Accounting Establishes an annual OMB supplemental capital and consumption budget scorecard enabling Congress and citizens to distinguish federal borrowing for investment from federal borrowing for consumption. uuid-obj-03-01-ffsf-2026-0008 3.1 Future Generations Benefits from transparent accounting that exposes whether current borrowing builds assets they will inherit or merely transfers current consumption costs to them. Transparency Beneficiary Gains visibility into the intergenerational equity implications of current federal borrowing through the published scorecard. Beneficiary Investment Accounting ~ FFSF Objective 3.1: The federal unified budget currently treats all spending -- whether for 50-year infrastructure or a one-time transfer payment -- as equivalent current expenditure. A supplemental capital and consumption scorecard would not alter the unified budget baseline used for CBO deficit scoring but would make visible to legislators and citizens the intergenerational equity implications of each borrowing decision, informing the political economy of fiscal adjustment. 3.1.1 Scorecard Publication Number Status uuid-pi-03-01-01-ffsf-2026-0008 2026-10-01 2028-09-30 1 Published Publishes one annual OMB supplemental capital and consumption budget scorecard by the end of FY2028, distinguishing investment borrowing (with commensurate future assets) from consumption borrowing (with no commensurate future benefit) in the federal budget. TBD No such supplemental scorecard currently exists as a standard OMB publication. The FY2027 budget omits even standard debt and deficit projections, indicating the current administration is moving away from, rather than toward, this level of fiscal transparency. Consumption Restraint Caps combined annual growth of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid outlays at no more than 100% of nominal GDP growth, preventing their combined share of GDP from expanding further and imposing unconstrained consumption costs on future generations. uuid-obj-03-02-ffsf-2026-0009 3.2 Program Beneficiaries Has a direct stake in both the near-term adequacy of benefits and the long-term solvency of the programs on which those benefits depend. Program Participant Receives mandatory transfer payments whose long-term sustainability depends on bringing program growth into alignment with economic capacity. Beneficiary Future Taxpayers Bears the financing obligation for unconstrained mandatory spending growth that exceeds the economy's capacity to support it. Future Financier Funds mandatory spending obligations inherited from prior generations through future tax revenues. Performer Consumption Restraint ~ FFSF Objective 3.2: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are the primary drivers of long-term federal spending growth and the structural primary deficit. Criscitello (2026) notes that the FY2027 budget proposes no meaningful changes to these programs. Capping their combined growth at nominal GDP growth is not a benefit cut; it is a structural constraint that prevents their combined share of GDP from expanding further, while still allowing benefits to grow in absolute terms. Under current projections the mandatory spending programs are the single largest source of the intergenerational consumption transfer this goal seeks to constrain. 3.2.1 Mandatory Programs as Pct of GDP Percent Status uuid-pi-03-02-01-ffsf-2026-0009 2026-10-01 2035-09-30 11.2 Constrained Holds combined SS+Medicare+Medicaid outlays at no more than 11.2% of GDP (the FY2025 baseline level) through FY2035, equivalent to requiring that their growth rate does not exceed nominal GDP growth. Any increase above this ceiling means consumption-driven mandatory programs are expanding their claim on the economy. Measured annually from OMB Historical Tables 3.2 and 8.4. TBD To be calculated annually from OMB Historical Tables and CBO Budget and Economic Outlook. Under current law, combined Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid outlays are projected to grow significantly faster than nominal GDP throughout the entire planning period, with no enacted legislation constraining that trajectory as of April 26, 2026. 2014-10-01 2015-09-30 9.9 Historical FY2015 combined SS+Medicare+Medicaid outlays were 9.9% of GDP. Post-ACA baseline before accelerated enrollment growth. Source: OMB Historical Table 3.2. 2015-10-01 2016-09-30 10.2 Historical FY2016 combined outlays rose to 10.2% of GDP, driven by ACA Medicaid expansion enrollment and Social Security cost-of-living adjustments. Source: OMB Historical Table 3.2. 2016-10-01 2017-09-30 10.3 Historical FY2017 combined outlays reached 10.3% of GDP as baby boomer retirement-driven Social Security and Medicare growth accelerated. Source: OMB Historical Table 3.2. 2017-10-01 2018-09-30 10.1 Historical FY2018 combined outlays were 10.1% of GDP; strong nominal GDP growth temporarily held the share nearly flat despite continued enrollment growth. Source: OMB Historical Table 3.2. 2018-10-01 2019-09-30 10.5 Historical FY2019 combined outlays rose to 10.5% of GDP as Medicare Advantage enrollment accelerated and Social Security approached 5.0% of GDP. Source: OMB Historical Table 3.2. 2019-10-01 2020-09-30 12.1 Historical FY2020 combined outlays surged to 12.1% of GDP, inflated by pandemic-era Medicaid expansion and COVID-related Medicare utilization. Source: OMB Historical Table 3.2. 2020-10-01 2021-09-30 12.6 Historical FY2021 combined outlays peaked at 12.6% of GDP, the highest on record, driven by expanded Medicaid enrollment and pandemic effects. Source: OMB Historical Table 3.2. 2021-10-01 2022-09-30 10.3 Historical FY2022 combined outlays fell to 10.3% of GDP as nominal GDP recovered and pandemic Medicaid enrollment began unwinding. Source: OMB Historical Table 3.2. 2022-10-01 2023-09-30 10.8 Historical FY2023 combined outlays rose to 10.8% of GDP as Medicaid unwinding was offset by continuing Social Security and Medicare growth. Source: OMB Historical Table 3.2. 2023-10-01 2024-09-30 11.0 Historical FY2024 combined outlays reached 11.0% of GDP; federal Medicare alone surpassed $1.0 trillion for the first time. Source: CMS National Health Expenditure data; OMB Historical Table 3.2. 2024-10-01 2025-09-30 11.2 Reported FY2025 combined outlays estimated at 11.2% of GDP: Social Security ~5.3%, Medicare ~3.6%, Medicaid ~2.3%. Source: OMB FY2027 Budget Historical Tables 3.2 and 8.4. uuid-admin-ffsf-2026-0001 2026-10-01 2035-09-30 2026-04-26 https://stratml.us/docs/FFSF2026.xml Owen Ambur Owen.Ambur@verizon.net